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Source: CLARÍN
Milei announces $30 billion YPF-ENI deal and projects $50 billion oil & gas trade surplus by 2031
The Editor, based on what Javier Milei, President of Argentina said
Milei unveiled the $30 billion deal between YPF and Italian energy companyNI, adding it to $25 billion already approved under the RIGI investment incentive regime, another $25 billion pending approval under the same framework, and $25 billion announced by OpenAI's Sam Altman — bringing total investment announcements over the past year to $100 billion. According to Milei, the oil and gas sector would generate a $50 billion trade surplus starting in 2031, double the current annual contribution of Argentina's agricultural sector. The disbursement timeline for the YPF-ENI deal remains unclear, as does whether the $25 billion in pending RIGI applications will be approved within expected timeframes.
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Milei sends new Periglacial Zones Law to Congress to decentralize mining regulation to provinces
The Editor, based on what Javier Milei, President of Argentina said
Milei announced he is sending to Congress a new Periglacial Zones Law that would delegate to each province the authority to define the boundaries of periglacial protection areas, eliminating the current centralized definition. Milei credited the initiative to Mendoza Governor Alfredo Cornejo. Argentina currently exports $4 billion worth of copper compared to Chile's $50 billion; achieving the 12.5-fold increase Milei cited requires that mining projects currently blocked by existing regulations actually advance following legislative approval. The ruling coalition's vote count for passing the bill remains uncertain, as does which provinces will support or challenge the redefinition of their own periglacial zones.
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Milei announces new tax package and $500 billion tax relief target by 2031
The Editor, based on what Javier Milei, President of Argentina said
Milei announced that his administration has eliminated or reduced 20 taxes in the first 20 months in office, equivalent to 2.5 points of GDP. He is sending to the extraordinary congressional session, alongside a zero-deficit budget, a fiscal presumption of innocence bill — which would shift the burden of proof in disputes with the tax authority — and an additional tax reform package. The target of $500 billion in cumulative tax reductions by 2031 exceeds Argentina's total current debt, which Milei himself estimated at $450 billion, though he did not specify which taxes are included in the new package or its implementation timeline.
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Milei unveils labor reform giving local agreements precedence over national contracts to reduce informality
The Editor, based on what Javier Milei, President of Argentina said
Milei outlined a planned labor reform built around seven pillars, centered on the concept of descending precedence: agreements at lower levels — company, municipality, province, region — would override those at higher levels, reversing the current hierarchy. He cited a study from Universidad de San Andrés — produced by the advanced macroeconomics seminar led by Dr. Federico Sturzenegger — establishing a 20% productivity gap between the Pampas region and the northwest, and projecting that regional bargaining would raise employment in the northwest by 17%. He did not specify when the bill will be sent to Congress or which legislative blocs support it.
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Milei projects end of inflation in Argentina by August 2026 after eliminating 10-point-of-GDP quasi-fiscal deficit
The Editor, based on what Javier Milei, President of Argentina said
Milei described the macroeconomic picture he inherited: wholesale inflation at 54% per month, a Central Bank imbalance equivalent to four monetary bases with daily maturities, nine monetary bases in peso-denominated debt maturing within three months, and a monetary overhang twice the size of the so-called Rodrigazo. In response, the government achieved zero fiscal deficit within one month and eliminated a quasi-fiscal deficit of 10 points of GDP within six months. Milei set August 2026 as the projected date for inflation to cease being a problem, anchoring his forecast in a 24-to-26-month monetary policy lag established by research from the Universidad de Córdoba, with the money supply fixed as of mid-2024.
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Milei announces $30 billion YPF-Eni deal and projects $50 billion oil & gas trade surplus by 2031
The Editor, based on what Javier Milei, President of Argentina said
Milei presented the YPF-Eni agreement to a business audience as the largest single investment in Argentine history. The announcement falls under the Large Investment Incentive Regime (RIGI), which has already approved $25 billion and has another $25 billion under review. Combined with the YPF-Eni deal and the $25 billion announced by OpenAI's Sam Altman, total investment announcements over the past year reach $100 billion. Milei explicitly credited Foreign Minister Pablo Quirno and presidential chief of staff Karina Milei as the architects of what he called the 'mining road show.'
The projected $50 billion oil and gas trade surplus by 2031 would represent double Argentina's current annual agricultural exports, by Milei's own account. For institutional investors, the critical gap between announcements and actual disbursements remains unaddressed. The RIGI, passed in 2024, still faces regulatory uncertainty at the provincial level, and approval of the $25 billion in pending applications depends on administrative decisions with no publicly confirmed timeline.
"Over the past year, Argentina has received investment announcements totaling $100 billion."
Milei sends new Periglacial Zones Law to Congress to decentralize mining regulation to provinces
The Editor, based on what Javier Milei, President of Argentina said
The current Periglacial Zones Law has stalled mining projects in Andean provinces by maintaining a broad, centrally defined protection area. Milei's proposal transfers that authority to provincial governments, reducing regulatory risk for investors but creating a fragmented patchwork of regulations across the country. The explicit mention of Mendoza Governor Alfredo Cornejo as the intellectual author of the idea serves as a political signal to moderate opposition governors whose legislative support the government needs to pass the bill.
The projected payoff — one million direct jobs and copper exports on par with Chile — depends on projects in the pipeline completing full investment cycles, which in mining typically span eight to twelve years from environmental approval. Environmental opposition groups and certain provincial blocs representing glacier territories are the primary obstacles in Congress. The next decisive moment is the extraordinary congressional session, where this bill competes for agenda space with the tax package and budget announced in the same speech.
"What this law we are sending to Congress allows is the restoration of federalism to the provinces, so that each province determines what its own periglacial zone is."
Milei announces new tax package and $500 billion tax relief target by 2031
The Editor, based on what Javier Milei, President of Argentina said
The fiscal announcement comes against the immediate political backdrop of the opening of extraordinary congressional sessions, where the government simultaneously submitted the budget, the fiscal presumption of innocence bill, and the new tax package. Economy Minister Luis Caputo presented the $500 billion cumulative reduction figure as the long-term projection of the government's fiscal plan. Milei used it to frame tax relief as a higher priority than debt reduction — an explicit inversion of the priorities typically found in orthodox adjustment programs.
The figure is difficult for the opposition to challenge in the short term given its 2031 horizon. For investors, the more immediately relevant measure is the fiscal presumption of innocence bill, which would fundamentally alter the relationship between taxpayers and the AFIP tax authority in disputes. The next inflection point is the vote on these bills during the extraordinary session: without a majority in either chamber, the ruling coalition depends on deals with provincial blocs whose support is not guaranteed.
"Over these 20 months we have eliminated or reduced 20 taxes, and we have given Argentines something never seen in history — two and a half points of GDP in tax cuts."
Milei unveils labor reform giving local agreements precedence over national contracts to reduce informality
The Editor, based on what Javier Milei, President of Argentina said
The proposed labor reform targets the 50% informal employment rate that Milei himself acknowledged as a defining feature of Argentina's labor market. The descending precedence mechanism is designed to allow lower-productivity regions — specifically the northwest, which the cited study places 20% below Pampas productivity — to negotiate wages below the national benchmark without reducing the rights of currently formal workers, whose existing contracts Milei pledged to protect. The reference to Sturzenegger, the Minister of Deregulation, anchors the proposal firmly within the government's technical team.
Resistance from unions and Peronist opposition blocs is the central obstacle: the argument that descending precedence erodes national collective bargaining agreements is the predictable line of attack. Milei preempted that criticism by arguing that formal workers would not lose rights, while informal workers — currently entitled to none — would gain them. The bill has no confirmed date for submission to Congress, which makes it more of a positioning signal for investors than a legislative commitment with a defined timeline.
"Anyone who looks at the labor market data and sees that 50% of workers are informal simply cannot claim that rights are being taken away."
Milei projects end of inflation in Argentina by August 2026 after eliminating 10-point-of-GDP quasi-fiscal deficit
The Editor, based on what Javier Milei, President of Argentina said
Milei's chronological argument is technically consistent with the monetary lag rule he cites, but politically risky: he has publicly anchored a specific date — August 2026 — for resolving inflation, in an Argentine election year. The monthly inflation figure he cited — 2.3%, presented as the reading from the day before the speech — implies an annualized rate of approximately 31%, still far from target. Milei explicitly acknowledged that 'there is still a long way to go,' but framed that concession within a narrative of cumulative success: zero deficit in one month, elimination of the quasi-fiscal deficit in six months, and a 30% real-terms reduction in public spending.
For sovereign risk analysts, the elimination of the quasi-fiscal deficit — a source of endogenous monetary expansion that previous programs failed to resolve without resorting to confiscations such as the Bonex Plan or the corralito, as Milei himself noted — is the most structurally significant data point. The comparison with the UK Chancellor, who would adjust one point of GDP per year versus the five points Argentina corrected in a single month, was deployed to contextualize the scale of the adjustment for an international investor audience. The next verifiable milestone is the monthly inflation reading for August 2026.
"By the middle of next year, or by August of next year, inflation in Argentina will have become nothing more than a bad memory."
