Caputo Secures $4 Billion Multilateral Guarantee to Back Up to $10 Billion in Private Credit

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Source: LA NACION

Caputo Secures $4 Billion Multilateral Guarantee to Back Up to $10 Billion in Private Credit

The Editor, based on what Carlos Pagni, LA NACION said

Luis Caputo finalized a $4 billion multilateral guarantee package at the IMF Spring Meetings to back private bank loans of between $8 billion and $10 billion, with $10 billion in maturities due this year and $20 billion the next. The buildup of debt with multilateral institutions — by definition non-restructurable — increases the risk that, in any future renegotiation, private bondholders would be the only ones subject to haircuts. What remains unresolved is whether the geopolitical alignment with Washington that facilitates these loans is sustainable if the Trump administration changes course or if Argentina shifts its stance on the Middle East or China.

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AIME April Poll: Milei Approval Falls to 34%, Lowest Since December 2023

The Editor, based on what Carlos Pagni, LA NACION said

AIME's April poll puts Milei's approval at 34%, breaking through the previous floor of 37% recorded in March and in September 2024 following a defeat in Buenos Aires province elections, with disapproval at 63%, also a series high. For the first time in AIME's tracking data, the share of respondents attributing economic problems to current government policy exceeds those blaming Kirchnerism; 26% blame both equally. The open question is whether this shift in perceived responsibility is irreversible, or whether a sustained decline in inflation over the coming months can reverse the trend before the midterm elections.

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Pagni: Government Is Misdiagnosing Its Approval Slump, Opening the Door for the Opposition

The Editor, based on what Carlos Pagni, LA NACION said

According to Pagni, the government's response to its record-low approval rating — closing the Casa Rosada press room — reveals that it interprets its problem as one of image rather than governance, leading it to apply the wrong solutions and accelerate its decline. Meanwhile, Macri is exploring alternative candidacies — Rogelio Frigerio, Jorge Brito, or himself — and a Peronist faction led by Juan Manuel Olmos and Victoria Tolosa Paz is set to go public on May 1 with a platform that revisits Kirchnerist economic orthodoxy. The open question is whether any of these opposition forces has the narrative needed to electorally capitalize on accumulated public discontent.

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22% Drop in Car Registrations and Record Credit Card Debt Threaten Fiscal Surplus

The Editor, based on what Carlos Pagni, LA NACION said

Pagni cites April data showing a 22% drop in car registrations compared to April 2024 and a 7% decline in the cumulative first quarter; mass consumption fell 5.1% year-on-year in March according to La Nación data; and e-commerce grew 34% in March, displacing employment in brick-and-mortar retail. The Central Bank records a sustained increase in household credit card debt since 2024, driven by high interest rates the government is maintaining to deter dollarization. The unresolved tension is whether tax revenues can hold up long enough to preserve the fiscal surplus as the anchor of the economic program, or whether falling consumption and output will erode it before inflation comes down.

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Peter Thiel Visits Argentina, Meets with Santiago Caputo, Buys Buenos Aires Home

The Editor, based on what Carlos Pagni, LA NACION said

Peter Thiel — PayPal co-founder, early Facebook investor, and owner of Palantir, a data company with active contracts with the Pentagon, CIA, and operations in Ukraine, Gaza, and Iran — purchased a home in Buenos Aires' Barrio Parque neighborhood and plans to stay for several weeks. He had lunch with Santiago Caputo, who according to Pagni controls Arca — the ruling coalition's major database — and a cyberespionage directorate within the SIDE intelligence agency with access to ANSES social security data. Pagni raises but leaves unresolved whether this alliance involves the use of state data to manipulate elections in the style of Cambridge Analytica — a hypothesis Elisa Carrió answers in the affirmative.

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